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NAC Breda vs De Graafschap — Eerste Divisie 2018

NAC Breda
NAC Breda
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
De Graafschap
De Graafschap
3/11/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 30Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

NAC Breda44%
×Draw24%
De Graafschap32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC Breda
1.64
De Graafschap
1.38

NAC Breda creates 19% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 131 away

creates per match

NAC Breda
1.80
De Graafschap
1.68

allows per match

NAC Breda
1.08
De Graafschap
1.47

finishing

NAC Breda+0.00on par
De Graafschap+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

De Graafschap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw
68%
NAC Breda or De Graafschap
76%
Draw or De Graafschap
56%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+
22%
De Graafschap wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals
81%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
49%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
23%
De Graafschap 1+ goals
75%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
40%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)
57%
De Graafschap (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.80 + De Graafschap defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.64

De Graafschap attack 1.68 + NAC Breda defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

NAC Breda scores more
44%
level
24%
De Graafschap scores more
32%

NAC Breda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NAC Breda 2 – 0 De Graafschap

NAC Breda beat De Graafschap 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 11, 2022.

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.