De Graafschap 1–1 NAC Breda: Result & Stats

De Graafschap

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

NAC Breda

9/9/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 6Stadion De Vijverberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

De Graafschap45%

×Draw24%

NAC Breda31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

De GraafschapExpected goals in this matchNAC Breda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.37

De Graafschap

1.69

NAC Breda

1.37

De Graafschap creates 23% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 90 away

1.85

creates per match

1.62

1.11

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

De Graafschap

1.85

NAC Breda

1.62

allows per match

De Graafschap

1.11

NAC Breda

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

De Graafschap+0.00on par

NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

NAC Breda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw

69%

De Graafschap or NAC Breda

76%

Draw or NAC Breda

55%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+

24%

NAC Breda wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals

82%

De Graafschap 2+ goals

50%

De Graafschap 3+ goals

24%

NAC Breda 1+ goals

75%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

40%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)

59%

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 131 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 1.85 + NAC Breda defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.69

NAC Breda attack 1.62 + De Graafschap defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

De Graafschap scores more

45%

level

24%

NAC Breda scores more

31%

De Graafschap at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff