Næsby 1–3 KFUM Roskilde: Result & Stats

Næsby

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

KFUM Roskilde

9/18/2021

3. Division · Round 8ALPI Arena Næsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Næsby54%

×Draw22%

KFUM Roskilde23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NæsbyExpected goals in this matchKFUM Roskilde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.19

Næsby

1.92

KFUM Roskilde

1.19

Næsby creates 61% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 16 away

1.95

creates per match

0.94

1.44

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Næsby

1.95

KFUM Roskilde

0.94

allows per match

Næsby

1.44

KFUM Roskilde

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par

KFUM Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

KFUM Roskilde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Næsby or draw

77%

Næsby or KFUM Roskilde

78%

Draw or KFUM Roskilde

46%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+

31%

KFUM Roskilde wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals

85%

Næsby 2+ goals

57%

Næsby 3+ goals

30%

KFUM Roskilde 1+ goals

70%

KFUM Roskilde 2+ goals

33%

KFUM Roskilde 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)

70%

KFUM Roskilde (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

KFUM Roskilde away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 1.95 + KFUM Roskilde defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.92

KFUM Roskilde attack 0.94 + Næsby defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Næsby scores more

54%

level

22%

KFUM Roskilde scores more

23%

Næsby at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff