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KFUM Roskilde vs Næsby — 3. Division 2021

KFUM Roskilde
KFUM Roskilde
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Næsby
Næsby
3/12/20223. Division3. Division · Round 18Lillevang Idrætscenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

KFUM Roskilde34%
×Draw24%
Næsby42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM Roskilde
1.46
Næsby
1.65

Næsby creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 80 away

creates per match

KFUM Roskilde
1.44
Næsby
1.60

allows per match

KFUM Roskilde
1.69
Næsby
1.49

finishing

KFUM Roskilde+0.00on par
Næsby+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Roskilde ↓

Næsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

KFUM Roskilde or draw
58%
KFUM Roskilde or Næsby
76%
Draw or Næsby
66%

Winning margin

KFUM Roskilde wins by 2+
16%
Næsby wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

KFUM Roskilde 1+ goals
77%
KFUM Roskilde 2+ goals
43%
KFUM Roskilde 3+ goals
18%
Næsby 1+ goals
81%
Næsby 2+ goals
49%
Næsby 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

KFUM Roskilde (draw refunded)
45%
Næsby (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Roskilde at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Næsby away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.49 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Roskilde attack 1.44 + Næsby defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Næsby attack 1.60 + KFUM Roskilde defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KFUM Roskilde scores more
34%
level
24%
Næsby scores more
42%

Næsby at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KFUM Roskilde vs Næsby

KFUM Roskilde and Næsby drew 1-1 in 3. Division on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Lillevang Idrætscenter in Roskilde.