Næsby 1–2 Holstebro: Result & Stats | 3. Division

Næsby

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Holstebro

9/30/2023

3. Division · Round 9ALPI Arena Næsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Næsby43%

×Draw23%

Holstebro34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NæsbyExpected goals in this matchHolstebro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.50

Næsby

1.71

Holstebro

1.50

Næsby creates 14% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 48 away

1.95

creates per match

1.56

1.44

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Næsby

1.95

Holstebro

1.56

allows per match

Næsby

1.44

Holstebro

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par

Holstebro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

Holstebro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Næsby or draw

66%

Næsby or Holstebro

77%

Draw or Holstebro

57%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+

22%

Holstebro wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals

82%

Næsby 2+ goals

51%

Næsby 3+ goals

24%

Holstebro 1+ goals

78%

Holstebro 2+ goals

44%

Holstebro 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)

56%

Holstebro (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Holstebro away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 1.95 + Holstebro defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.71

Holstebro attack 1.56 + Næsby defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Næsby scores more

43%

level

23%

Holstebro scores more

34%

Næsby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff