Holstebro 1–2 Næsby: Result & Stats | 3. Division

Holstebro

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Næsby

A. Huseinovic 90+4'

R. Nissen 90+2', 38'

3/12/2023

3. Division · Round 17Holstebro Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Holstebro37%

×Draw24%

Næsby40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HolstebroExpected goals in this matchNæsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.59

Holstebro

1.52

Næsby

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 80 away

1.54

creates per match

1.60

1.58

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Holstebro

1.54

Næsby

1.60

allows per match

Holstebro

1.58

Næsby

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstebro+0.00on par

Næsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstebro ↓

Næsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Holstebro or draw

60%

Holstebro or Næsby

76%

Draw or Næsby

63%

Winning margin

Holstebro wins by 2+

18%

Næsby wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Holstebro 1+ goals

78%

Holstebro 2+ goals

45%

Holstebro 3+ goals

20%

Næsby 1+ goals

80%

Næsby 2+ goals

47%

Næsby 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Holstebro (draw refunded)

48%

Næsby (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstebro at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.58 · 48 matches

Næsby away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.49 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstebro attack 1.54 + Næsby defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Næsby attack 1.60 + Holstebro defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Holstebro scores more

37%

level

24%

Næsby scores more

40%

Næsby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

R. Nissen

90+2'

R. Nissen

90+4'

A. Huseinovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff