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Næsby vs Aarhus Fremad — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Næsby
Næsby
FT
1 – 0
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
2/2/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Næsby57%
×Draw20%
Aarhus Fremad23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Næsby
2.27
Aarhus Fremad
1.38

Næsby creates 64% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

creates per match

Næsby
2.70
Aarhus Fremad
1.26

allows per match

Næsby
1.50
Aarhus Fremad
1.84

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Næsby or draw
77%
Næsby or Aarhus Fremad
80%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
43%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+
36%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals
90%
Næsby 2+ goals
66%
Næsby 3+ goals
39%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
75%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
40%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)
71%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 2.70 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.27

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.26 + Næsby defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Næsby scores more
57%
level
20%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
23%

Næsby at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Næsby
Aarhus
A. Bech
Manager: A. Bech
Morten Dahm Kjærgaard
Manager: Morten Dahm Kjærgaard

Friendlies Clubs: Næsby 1–0 Aarhus Fremad

Næsby beat Aarhus Fremad 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 2, 2025.