Aarhus Fremad 1–1 Næsby: Result & Stats

Aarhus Fremad

FT

1 – 1

Næsby

3/20/2021

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15ASA kunstgræs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aarhus Fremad52%

×Draw22%

Næsby26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aarhus FremadExpected goals in this matchNæsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.35

Aarhus Fremad

1.96

Næsby

1.35

Aarhus Fremad creates 45% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 13 away

2.01

creates per match

1.62

1.09

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad

2.01

Næsby

1.62

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad

1.09

Næsby

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Næsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Næsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw

74%

Aarhus Fremad or Næsby

78%

Draw or Næsby

48%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

30%

Næsby wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

86%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

58%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

31%

Næsby 1+ goals

74%

Næsby 2+ goals

39%

Næsby 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

66%

Næsby (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.09 · 78 matches

Næsby away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 2.01 + Næsby defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.96

Næsby attack 1.62 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more

52%

level

22%

Næsby scores more

26%

Aarhus Fremad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff