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Mzuni vs Red Lions — Super League 2026

Mzuni
Mzuni
FT
0 – 1
Red Lions
Red Lions
7/4/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mzuni36%
×Draw30%
Red Lions33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mzuni
1.07
Red Lions
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 49 away

creates per match

Mzuni
0.68
Red Lions
0.82

allows per match

Mzuni
1.21
Red Lions
1.47

finishing

Mzuni+0.00on par
Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mzuni ↓

Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mzuni or draw
67%
Mzuni or Red Lions
70%
Draw or Red Lions
64%

Winning margin

Mzuni wins by 2+
14%
Red Lions wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mzuni 1+ goals
66%
Mzuni 2+ goals
29%
Mzuni 3+ goals
9%
Red Lions 1+ goals
64%
Red Lions 2+ goals
27%
Red Lions 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mzuni (draw refunded)
52%
Red Lions (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mzuni at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Red Lions away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mzuni attack 0.68 + Red Lions defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.07

Red Lions attack 0.82 + Mzuni defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mzuni scores more
36%
level
30%
Red Lions scores more
33%

Mzuni at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mzuni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mzuni vs Red Lions

Red Lions beat Mzuni 1-0 in Super League on July 4, 2021.

The match was played at Mzuzu Stadium in Mzuzu.