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Red Lions vs Mzuni — Super League 2026

Red Lions
Red Lions
FT
0 – 1
Mzuni
Mzuni
4/2/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Red Lions49%
×Draw28%
Mzuni23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Lions
1.36
Mzuni
0.84

Red Lions creates 62% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 19 away

creates per match

Red Lions
0.88
Mzuni
0.68

allows per match

Red Lions
1.00
Mzuni
1.84

finishing

Red Lions+0.00on par
Mzuni+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Lions ↓

Mzuni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Red Lions or draw
77%
Red Lions or Mzuni
72%
Draw or Mzuni
51%

Winning margin

Red Lions wins by 2+
23%
Mzuni wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Red Lions 1+ goals
74%
Red Lions 2+ goals
39%
Red Lions 3+ goals
16%
Mzuni 1+ goals
57%
Mzuni 2+ goals
21%
Mzuni 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Red Lions (draw refunded)
68%
Mzuni (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Lions at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

Mzuni away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Lions attack 0.88 + Mzuni defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.36

Mzuni attack 0.68 + Red Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Red Lions scores more
49%
level
28%
Mzuni scores more
23%

Red Lions at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Red Lions 0–1 Mzuni

Mzuni beat Red Lions 1-0 in Super League on April 2, 2021.

The match was played at Mpira Stadium in Blantyre.