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Mzuni vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

Mzuni
Mzuni
FT
1 – 0
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
5/15/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mzuni29%
×Draw31%
Kamuzu Barracks40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mzuni
0.90
Kamuzu Barracks
1.10

Kamuzu Barracks creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 81 away

creates per match

Mzuni
0.68
Kamuzu Barracks
1.00

allows per match

Mzuni
1.21
Kamuzu Barracks
1.11

finishing

Mzuni+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mzuni ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mzuni or draw
60%
Mzuni or Kamuzu Barracks
69%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
71%

Winning margin

Mzuni wins by 2+
10%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mzuni 1+ goals
59%
Mzuni 2+ goals
23%
Mzuni 3+ goals
6%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
67%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
30%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mzuni (draw refunded)
42%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mzuni at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mzuni attack 0.68 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.90

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + Mzuni defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mzuni scores more
29%
level
31%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
40%

Kamuzu Barracks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mzuni 1–0 Kamuzu Barracks

Mzuni beat Kamuzu Barracks 1-0 in Super League on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Mzuzu Stadium in Mzuzu.