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Kamuzu Barracks vs Mzuni — Super League 2026

Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
FT
2 – 1
Mzuni
Mzuni
5/30/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kamuzu Barracks55%
×Draw27%
Mzuni19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamuzu Barracks
1.46
Mzuni
0.73

Kamuzu Barracks creates 100% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kamuzu Barracks
1.07
Mzuni
0.68

allows per match

Kamuzu Barracks
0.77
Mzuni
1.84

finishing

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par
Mzuni+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamuzu Barracks ↓

Mzuni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kamuzu Barracks or draw
81%
Kamuzu Barracks or Mzuni
73%
Draw or Mzuni
45%

Winning margin

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
28%
Mzuni wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
77%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
43%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
18%
Mzuni 1+ goals
52%
Mzuni 2+ goals
17%
Mzuni 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
74%
Mzuni (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamuzu Barracks at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.77 · 83 matches

Mzuni away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.07 + Mzuni defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.46

Mzuni attack 0.68 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kamuzu Barracks scores more
55%
level
27%
Mzuni scores more
19%

Kamuzu Barracks at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamuzu Barracks vs Mzuni

Kamuzu Barracks beat Mzuni 2-1 in Super League on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.