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MyPa vs HaPK Edustus — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2026

MyPa
MyPa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HaPK Edustus
HaPK Edustus
8/16/2025Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 18Kymenlaakson Sähkö Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

MyPa73%
×Draw15%
HaPK Edustus12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MyPa
2.89
HaPK Edustus
1.10

MyPa creates 163% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 9 away

creates per match

MyPa
2.11
HaPK Edustus
0.44

allows per match

MyPa
1.77
HaPK Edustus
3.67

finishing

MyPa+0.00on par
HaPK Edustus+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MyPa ↓

HaPK Edustus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

MyPa or draw
88%
MyPa or HaPK Edustus
85%
Draw or HaPK Edustus
27%

Winning margin

MyPa wins by 2+
53%
HaPK Edustus wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

MyPa 1+ goals
94%
MyPa 2+ goals
78%
MyPa 3+ goals
54%
HaPK Edustus 1+ goals
67%
HaPK Edustus 2+ goals
30%
HaPK Edustus 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

MyPa (draw refunded)
86%
HaPK Edustus (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MyPa at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.77 · 47 matches

HaPK Edustus away — creates 0.44, concedes 3.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MyPa attack 2.11 + HaPK Edustus defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.89

HaPK Edustus attack 0.44 + MyPa defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

MyPa scores more
73%
level
15%
HaPK Edustus scores more
12%

MyPa at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "MyPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: MyPa 3–0 HaPK Edustus

MyPa beat HaPK Edustus 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Kymenlaakson Sähkö Stadion in Myllykoski.