MyPa 3–2 HaPK Edustus: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

MyPa

3 – 2

HaPK Edustus

3/12/2023

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundArto Tolsa Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

MyPa17%

×Draw15%

HaPK Edustus68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MyPaExpected goals in this matchHaPK Edustus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

3.17

MyPa

1.56

HaPK Edustus

3.17

HaPK Edustus creates 103% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.13

creates per match

3.20

3.13

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

MyPa

2.13

HaPK Edustus

3.20

allows per match

MyPa

3.13

HaPK Edustus

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MyPa+0.00on par

HaPK Edustus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MyPa ↓

HaPK Edustus →

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1–01%

1–15%

1–27%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

MyPa or draw

32%

MyPa or HaPK Edustus

85%

Draw or HaPK Edustus

83%

Winning margin

MyPa wins by 2+

HaPK Edustus wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

MyPa 1+ goals

79%

MyPa 2+ goals

46%

MyPa 3+ goals

21%

HaPK Edustus 1+ goals

96%

HaPK Edustus 2+ goals

82%

HaPK Edustus 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

MyPa (draw refunded)

20%

HaPK Edustus (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

MyPa at home — creates 2.13, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

HaPK Edustus away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

MyPa attack 2.13 + HaPK Edustus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

HaPK Edustus attack 3.20 + MyPa defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

MyPa scores more

17%

level

15%

HaPK Edustus scores more

68%

HaPK Edustus at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "HaPK Edustus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff