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MyPa vs AC Kajaani — Ykkönen 2018

MyPa
MyPa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
AC Kajaani
AC Kajaani
8/31/2019YkkönenYkkönen · Round 11Kymenlaakson Sähkö Stadion (Myllykoski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

MyPa34%
×Draw21%
AC Kajaani45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MyPa
1.72
AC Kajaani
2.01

AC Kajaani creates 17% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 39 away

creates per match

MyPa
1.25
AC Kajaani
1.64

allows per match

MyPa
2.38
AC Kajaani
2.18

finishing

MyPa+0.00on par
AC Kajaani+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MyPa ↓

AC Kajaani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

MyPa or draw
55%
MyPa or AC Kajaani
79%
Draw or AC Kajaani
66%

Winning margin

MyPa wins by 2+
17%
AC Kajaani wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

MyPa 1+ goals
82%
MyPa 2+ goals
51%
MyPa 3+ goals
25%
AC Kajaani 1+ goals
87%
AC Kajaani 2+ goals
59%
AC Kajaani 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

MyPa (draw refunded)
43%
AC Kajaani (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MyPa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.38 · 24 matches

AC Kajaani away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MyPa attack 1.25 + AC Kajaani defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.72

AC Kajaani attack 1.64 + MyPa defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

MyPa scores more
34%
level
21%
AC Kajaani scores more
45%

AC Kajaani at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AC Kajaani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: MyPa 2–2 AC Kajaani

MyPa and AC Kajaani drew 2-2 in Ykkönen on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Kymenlaakson Sähkö Stadion (Myllykoski).