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AC Kajaani vs MyPa — Ykkönen 2018

AC Kajaani
AC Kajaani
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
MyPa
MyPa
6/29/2019YkkönenYkkönen · Round 7Kajaanin liikuntapuisto (Kajaani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

AC Kajaani59%
×Draw20%
MyPa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Kajaani
2.17
MyPa
1.19

AC Kajaani creates 82% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 25 away

creates per match

AC Kajaani
1.38
MyPa
0.84

allows per match

AC Kajaani
1.54
MyPa
2.96

finishing

AC Kajaani+0.00on par
MyPa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Kajaani ↓

MyPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

AC Kajaani or draw
80%
AC Kajaani or MyPa
80%
Draw or MyPa
41%

Winning margin

AC Kajaani wins by 2+
37%
MyPa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AC Kajaani 1+ goals
89%
AC Kajaani 2+ goals
64%
AC Kajaani 3+ goals
36%
MyPa 1+ goals
70%
MyPa 2+ goals
33%
MyPa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AC Kajaani (draw refunded)
75%
MyPa (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Kajaani at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

MyPa away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Kajaani attack 1.38 + MyPa defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.17

MyPa attack 0.84 + AC Kajaani defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

AC Kajaani scores more
59%
level
20%
MyPa scores more
20%

AC Kajaani at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "AC Kajaani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: AC Kajaani 2–2 MyPa

AC Kajaani and MyPa drew 2-2 in Ykkönen on June 29, 2019.

The match was played at Kajaanin liikuntapuisto (Kajaani).