MYDA 3–3 Mbarara City: Result & Stats

MYDA

FT

3 – 3

Mbarara City

I. Nsimbe 90'

N. Ogiki 72', 67'

B. Mutanda 90+6'

W. A. Nguet M. 84', 26'

12/19/2020

Premier League · Round 5King George IV Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

MYDA32%

×Draw23%

Mbarara City45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MYDAExpected goals in this matchMbarara City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.79

MYDA

1.48

Mbarara City

1.79

Mbarara City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 86 away

1.36

creates per match

0.72

2.86

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

MYDA

1.36

Mbarara City

0.72

allows per match

MYDA

2.86

Mbarara City

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MYDA+0.00on par

Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MYDA ↓

Mbarara City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

MYDA or draw

55%

MYDA or Mbarara City

77%

Draw or Mbarara City

68%

Winning margin

MYDA wins by 2+

15%

Mbarara City wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

MYDA 1+ goals

77%

MYDA 2+ goals

43%

MYDA 3+ goals

19%

Mbarara City 1+ goals

83%

Mbarara City 2+ goals

53%

Mbarara City 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

MYDA (draw refunded)

42%

Mbarara City (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MYDA at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MYDA attack 1.36 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + MYDA defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

MYDA scores more

32%

level

23%

Mbarara City scores more

45%

Mbarara City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mbarara City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

W. A. Nguet M.

27'

45'

M. Ssekebba

46'

S. Bamba← R. Ocitti

48'

57'

E. Mutebi← E. Mutebi

67'

N. Ogiki

72'

N. Ogiki

75'

R. Onyai← R. Onyai

84'

M. Hilary

84'

W. A. Nguet M.

89'

A. Kirya← A. Kirya

90'

I. Nsimbe

90+4'

90+6'

B. Mutanda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff