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Mbarara City vs MYDA — Premier League 2019

Mbarara City
Mbarara City
FT
2 – 1
MYDA
MYDA
R. Onyai 90'
S. Okwalinga 5'
M. Bassi 30'
4/13/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Kakyeka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mbarara City62%
×Draw21%
MYDA17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbarara City
1.97
MYDA
0.91

Mbarara City creates 116% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mbarara City
1.08
MYDA
1.00

allows per match

Mbarara City
0.81
MYDA
2.85

finishing

Mbarara City+0.00on par
MYDA+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbarara City ↓

MYDA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mbarara City or draw
83%
Mbarara City or MYDA
79%
Draw or MYDA
38%

Winning margin

Mbarara City wins by 2+
37%
MYDA wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mbarara City 1+ goals
86%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
58%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
31%
MYDA 1+ goals
60%
MYDA 2+ goals
23%
MYDA 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mbarara City (draw refunded)
79%
MYDA (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbarara City at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

MYDA away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbarara City attack 1.08 + MYDA defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 1.97

MYDA attack 1.00 + Mbarara City defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mbarara City scores more
62%
level
21%
MYDA scores more
17%

Mbarara City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mbarara City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
S. Okwalinga
23'
R. Otti
30'
M. Bassi
52'
I. Wafula← I. Wafula
52'
R. Onyai← R. Onyai
54'
B. Lojum← B. Lojum
55'
M. Bassi
56'
K. Ramathan
66'
S. Okello
70'
S. Musindo← S. Musindo
90'
R. Onyai

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mbarara City 2–1 MYDA

Mbarara City beat MYDA 2-1 in Premier League on April 13, 2021.

Goals: S. Okwalinga (5'), M. Bassi (30'), R. Onyai (90').

The match was played at Kakyeka Stadium in Mbarara.