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MYDA vs Kitara — Premier League 2019

MYDA
MYDA
FT
2 – 2
Kitara
Kitara
M. Batali 90+5'
I. Nsimbe 65' (pen)
N. Oloro 46'
Z. Kizito 2'
3/5/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12King George IV Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

MYDA27%
×Draw22%
Kitara51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MYDA
1.38
Kitara
1.98

Kitara creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 57 away

creates per match

MYDA
1.36
Kitara
1.11

allows per match

MYDA
2.86
Kitara
1.40

finishing

MYDA+0.00on par
Kitara+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MYDA ↓

Kitara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

MYDA or draw
49%
MYDA or Kitara
78%
Draw or Kitara
73%

Winning margin

MYDA wins by 2+
12%
Kitara wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

MYDA 1+ goals
75%
MYDA 2+ goals
40%
MYDA 3+ goals
16%
Kitara 1+ goals
86%
Kitara 2+ goals
59%
Kitara 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

MYDA (draw refunded)
34%
Kitara (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MYDA at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

Kitara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MYDA attack 1.36 + Kitara defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kitara attack 1.11 + MYDA defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

MYDA scores more
27%
level
22%
Kitara scores more
51%

Kitara at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kitara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Z. Kizito
20'
P. Mbidde← P. Mbidde
33'
M. Bassi← M. Bassi
35'
I. Mafabi
36'
I. Nsimbe← I. Nsimbe
46'
N. Oloro
65'
P. Mbidde
65'
I. NsimbePenalty
74'
Y. Mubiru
79'
P. Mutebi← P. Mutebi
80'
I. Tumusiime← I. Tumusiime
83'
90'
Y. Mubiru
90'
Y. Mubiru
90+5'
M. Batali
90+6'
I. Mafabi
90+6'
I. Mafabi
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: MYDA 2–2 Kitara

MYDA and Kitara drew 2-2 in Premier League on March 5, 2021.

Goals: Z. Kizito (2'), N. Oloro (46'), I. Nsimbe (65' pen), M. Batali (90+5').

The match was played at King George IV Memorial Stadium in Tororo.