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Kitara vs MYDA — Premier League 2019

Kitara
Kitara
FT
3 – 1
MYDA
MYDA
5/18/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Masindi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kitara65%
×Draw19%
MYDA16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitara
2.31
MYDA
1.07

Kitara creates 116% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kitara
1.78
MYDA
1.00

allows per match

Kitara
1.14
MYDA
2.85

finishing

Kitara+0.00on par
MYDA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitara ↓

MYDA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kitara or draw
84%
Kitara or MYDA
81%
Draw or MYDA
35%

Winning margin

Kitara wins by 2+
42%
MYDA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kitara 1+ goals
90%
Kitara 2+ goals
67%
Kitara 3+ goals
40%
MYDA 1+ goals
66%
MYDA 2+ goals
29%
MYDA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kitara (draw refunded)
80%
MYDA (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitara at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

MYDA away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitara attack 1.78 + MYDA defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.31

MYDA attack 1.00 + Kitara defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kitara scores more
65%
level
19%
MYDA scores more
16%

Kitara at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kitara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kitara 3 – 1 MYDA

Kitara beat MYDA 3-1 in Premier League on May 18, 2021.

The match was played at Masindi Stadium in Masindi.