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MYDA vs KCCA — Premier League 2019

MYDA
MYDA
CANC
12:00
KCCA
KCCA
6/26/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29King George IV Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

MYDA21%
×Draw21%
KCCA57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MYDA
1.15
KCCA
2.03

KCCA creates 77% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 100 away

creates per match

MYDA
1.36
KCCA
1.20

allows per match

MYDA
2.86
KCCA
0.93

finishing

MYDA+0.00on par
KCCA+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MYDA ↓

KCCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

MYDA or draw
43%
MYDA or KCCA
79%
Draw or KCCA
79%

Winning margin

MYDA wins by 2+
8%
KCCA wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

MYDA 1+ goals
68%
MYDA 2+ goals
32%
MYDA 3+ goals
11%
KCCA 1+ goals
87%
KCCA 2+ goals
60%
KCCA 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

MYDA (draw refunded)
27%
KCCA (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MYDA at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

KCCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MYDA attack 1.36 + KCCA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

KCCA attack 1.20 + MYDA defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

MYDA scores more
21%
level
21%
KCCA scores more
57%

KCCA at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: MYDA host KCCA

June 26, 2021: MYDA take on KCCA in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

MYDA host KCCA at King George IV Memorial Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.