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KCCA vs MYDA — Premier League 2019

KCCA
KCCA
FT
5 – 0
MYDA
MYDA
B. Anukani 90' (pen), 53'
C. Lwanga 89', 84'
M. Aliro 5'
2/20/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

KCCA73%
×Draw16%
MYDA11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCCA
2.50
MYDA
0.85

KCCA creates 194% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 13 away

creates per match

KCCA
2.14
MYDA
1.00

allows per match

KCCA
0.71
MYDA
2.85

finishing

KCCA+0.00on par
MYDA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCCA ↓

MYDA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

KCCA or draw
89%
KCCA or MYDA
84%
Draw or MYDA
27%

Winning margin

KCCA wins by 2+
51%
MYDA wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

KCCA 1+ goals
92%
KCCA 2+ goals
71%
KCCA 3+ goals
45%
MYDA 1+ goals
57%
MYDA 2+ goals
21%
MYDA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

KCCA (draw refunded)
87%
MYDA (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCCA at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 99 matches

MYDA away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCCA attack 2.14 + MYDA defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.50

MYDA attack 1.00 + KCCA defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

KCCA scores more
73%
level
16%
MYDA scores more
11%

KCCA at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
M. Aliro
47'
K. Keziron← K. Keziron
53'
B. Anukani
59'
I. Mafabi← I. Mafabi
62'
A. Etoju
71'
A. Kirya← A. Kirya
80'
A. S. Kigozi← A. S. Kigozi
84'
C. Lwanga
87'
S. Mazengo Lora← S. Mazengo Lora
89'
C. Lwanga
90'
B. AnukaniPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: KCCA 5–0 MYDA

KCCA beat MYDA 5-0 in Premier League on February 20, 2021.

Goals: M. Aliro (5'), B. Anukani (53', 90' pen), C. Lwanga (84', 89').

The match was played at MTN Omondi Stadium in Kampala.