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Mwatate United vs Kajiado — Super League 2018

Mwatate United
Mwatate United
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kajiado
Kajiado
2/18/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Wundanyi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mwatate United54%
×Draw22%
Kajiado24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mwatate United
1.90
Kajiado
1.19

Mwatate United creates 60% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 35 away

creates per match

Mwatate United
1.30
Kajiado
0.94

allows per match

Mwatate United
1.45
Kajiado
2.51

finishing

Mwatate United+0.00on par
Kajiado+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mwatate United ↓

Kajiado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mwatate United or draw
76%
Mwatate United or Kajiado
78%
Draw or Kajiado
46%

Winning margin

Mwatate United wins by 2+
31%
Kajiado wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mwatate United 1+ goals
85%
Mwatate United 2+ goals
56%
Mwatate United 3+ goals
29%
Kajiado 1+ goals
70%
Kajiado 2+ goals
33%
Kajiado 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mwatate United (draw refunded)
69%
Kajiado (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mwatate United at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

Kajiado away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.51 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mwatate United attack 1.30 + Kajiado defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.90

Kajiado attack 0.94 + Mwatate United defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mwatate United scores more
54%
level
22%
Kajiado scores more
24%

Mwatate United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mwatate United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mwatate United vs Kajiado

Mwatate United beat Kajiado 3-2 in Super League on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Wundanyi Stadium in Wundanyi.