Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kajiado vs Mwatate United — Super League 2018

Kajiado
Kajiado
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mwatate United
Mwatate United
6/12/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 33Ildamat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kajiado49%
×Draw25%
Mwatate United26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kajiado
1.59
Mwatate United
1.10

Kajiado creates 45% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 53 away

creates per match

Kajiado
1.49
Mwatate United
0.77

allows per match

Kajiado
1.43
Mwatate United
1.70

finishing

Kajiado+0.00on par
Mwatate United+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kajiado ↓

Mwatate United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kajiado or draw
74%
Kajiado or Mwatate United
75%
Draw or Mwatate United
51%

Winning margin

Kajiado wins by 2+
25%
Mwatate United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kajiado 1+ goals
80%
Kajiado 2+ goals
47%
Kajiado 3+ goals
21%
Mwatate United 1+ goals
67%
Mwatate United 2+ goals
30%
Mwatate United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kajiado (draw refunded)
65%
Mwatate United (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kajiado at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Mwatate United away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kajiado attack 1.49 + Mwatate United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

Mwatate United attack 0.77 + Kajiado defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kajiado scores more
49%
level
25%
Mwatate United scores more
26%

Kajiado at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kajiado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kajiado 1–1 Mwatate United

Kajiado and Mwatate United drew 1-1 in Super League on June 12, 2023.

The match was played at Ildamat Stadium in Kajiado.