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Mwatate United vs Gusii — Super League 2018

Mwatate United
Mwatate United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Gusii
Gusii
1/16/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Wundanyi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Mwatate United47%
×Draw26%
Gusii27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mwatate United
1.50
Gusii
1.08

Mwatate United creates 39% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 54 away

creates per match

Mwatate United
1.30
Gusii
0.72

allows per match

Mwatate United
1.45
Gusii
1.69

finishing

Mwatate United+0.00on par
Gusii+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mwatate United ↓

Gusii →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mwatate United or draw
73%
Mwatate United or Gusii
74%
Draw or Gusii
53%

Winning margin

Mwatate United wins by 2+
23%
Gusii wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mwatate United 1+ goals
78%
Mwatate United 2+ goals
44%
Mwatate United 3+ goals
19%
Gusii 1+ goals
66%
Gusii 2+ goals
29%
Gusii 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mwatate United (draw refunded)
63%
Gusii (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mwatate United at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

Gusii away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mwatate United attack 1.30 + Gusii defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Gusii attack 0.72 + Mwatate United defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mwatate United scores more
47%
level
26%
Gusii scores more
27%

Mwatate United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mwatate United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mwatate United vs Gusii

Gusii beat Mwatate United 3-1 in Super League on January 16, 2023.

The match was played at Wundanyi Stadium in Wundanyi.