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Gusii vs Mwatate United — Super League 2018

Gusii
Gusii
FT
2 – 0
Mwatate United
Mwatate United
12/5/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Gusii Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Gusii52%
×Draw25%
Mwatate United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gusii
1.58
Mwatate United
0.95

Gusii creates 66% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 53 away

creates per match

Gusii
1.46
Mwatate United
0.77

allows per match

Gusii
1.13
Mwatate United
1.70

finishing

Gusii+0.00on par
Mwatate United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gusii ↓

Mwatate United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gusii or draw
77%
Gusii or Mwatate United
75%
Draw or Mwatate United
48%

Winning margin

Gusii wins by 2+
27%
Mwatate United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gusii 1+ goals
79%
Gusii 2+ goals
47%
Gusii 3+ goals
21%
Mwatate United 1+ goals
61%
Mwatate United 2+ goals
25%
Mwatate United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gusii (draw refunded)
70%
Mwatate United (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gusii at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

Mwatate United away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gusii attack 1.46 + Mwatate United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mwatate United attack 0.77 + Gusii defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gusii scores more
52%
level
25%
Mwatate United scores more
23%

Gusii at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gusii will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gusii vs Mwatate United

Gusii beat Mwatate United 2-0 in Super League on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Gusii Stadium in Kisii.