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Mwadui vs Ihefu — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Mwadui
Mwadui
FT
2 – 0
Ihefu
Ihefu
9/27/2020Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 4Mwadui Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Mwadui44%
×Draw29%
Ihefu27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mwadui
1.25
Ihefu
0.91

Mwadui creates 37% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 47 away

creates per match

Mwadui
1.03
Ihefu
0.57

allows per match

Mwadui
1.25
Ihefu
1.47

finishing

Mwadui+0.00on par
Ihefu+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mwadui ↓

Ihefu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mwadui or draw
73%
Mwadui or Ihefu
71%
Draw or Ihefu
56%

Winning margin

Mwadui wins by 2+
20%
Ihefu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mwadui 1+ goals
71%
Mwadui 2+ goals
36%
Mwadui 3+ goals
13%
Ihefu 1+ goals
60%
Ihefu 2+ goals
23%
Ihefu 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mwadui (draw refunded)
62%
Ihefu (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mwadui at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Ihefu away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.47 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mwadui attack 1.03 + Ihefu defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ihefu attack 0.57 + Mwadui defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mwadui scores more
44%
level
29%
Ihefu scores more
27%

Mwadui at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mwadui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mwadui vs Ihefu

Mwadui beat Ihefu 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Mwadui Complex Stadium in Shinyanga.