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Ihefu vs Mwadui — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Ihefu
Ihefu
FT
3 – 2
Mwadui
Mwadui
2/20/2021Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 19Highland Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Ihefu55%
×Draw26%
Mwadui19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ihefu
1.54
Mwadui
0.78

Ihefu creates 97% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 36 away

creates per match

Ihefu
1.17
Mwadui
0.72

allows per match

Ihefu
0.85
Mwadui
1.92

finishing

Ihefu+0.00on par
Mwadui+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihefu ↓

Mwadui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ihefu or draw
81%
Ihefu or Mwadui
74%
Draw or Mwadui
45%

Winning margin

Ihefu wins by 2+
29%
Mwadui wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ihefu 1+ goals
79%
Ihefu 2+ goals
45%
Ihefu 3+ goals
20%
Mwadui 1+ goals
54%
Mwadui 2+ goals
18%
Mwadui 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ihefu (draw refunded)
74%
Mwadui (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihefu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Mwadui away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.92 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihefu attack 1.17 + Mwadui defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.54

Mwadui attack 0.72 + Ihefu defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ihefu scores more
55%
level
26%
Mwadui scores more
19%

Ihefu at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ihefu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ihefu vs Mwadui

Ihefu beat Mwadui 3-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Highland Estate Stadium in Ubaruku.