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MVV vs Groningen — Eerste Divisie 2018

MVV
MVV
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Groningen
Groningen
12/15/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 19De Geusselt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

MVV29%
×Draw24%
Groningen47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MVV
1.24
Groningen
1.64

Groningen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 19 away

creates per match

MVV
1.65
Groningen
1.74

allows per match

MVV
1.54
Groningen
0.84

finishing

MVV+0.00on par
Groningen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MVV ↓

Groningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

MVV or draw
53%
MVV or Groningen
76%
Draw or Groningen
71%

Winning margin

MVV wins by 2+
12%
Groningen wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

MVV 1+ goals
71%
MVV 2+ goals
35%
MVV 3+ goals
13%
Groningen 1+ goals
81%
Groningen 2+ goals
49%
Groningen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

MVV (draw refunded)
38%
Groningen (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MVV at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.54 · 147 matches

Groningen away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MVV attack 1.65 + Groningen defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.24

Groningen attack 1.74 + MVV defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

MVV scores more
29%
level
24%
Groningen scores more
47%

Groningen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MVV 1 – 1 Groningen

MVV and Groningen drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on December 15, 2023.

The match was played at De Geusselt in Maastricht.