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Groningen vs MVV — Eerste Divisie 2018

Groningen
Groningen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
MVV
MVV
3/8/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 29Euroborg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Groningen62%
×Draw21%
MVV17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen
1.96
MVV
0.91

Groningen creates 115% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 148 away

creates per match

Groningen
2.00
MVV
1.07

allows per match

Groningen
0.74
MVV
1.92

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par
MVV+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

MVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Groningen or draw
83%
Groningen or MVV
79%
Draw or MVV
38%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+
37%
MVV wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals
86%
Groningen 2+ goals
58%
Groningen 3+ goals
31%
MVV 1+ goals
60%
MVV 2+ goals
23%
MVV 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)
79%
MVV (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

MVV away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.92 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 2.00 + MVV defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.96

MVV attack 1.07 + Groningen defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Groningen scores more
62%
level
21%
MVV scores more
17%

Groningen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Groningen 3–0 MVV

Groningen beat MVV 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Euroborg in Groningen.