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Muttenz vs Black Stars — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Muttenz
Muttenz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Black Stars
Black Stars
11/22/20251. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Sportplatz Margelacker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Muttenz46%
×Draw21%
Black Stars33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muttenz
2.05
Black Stars
1.73

Muttenz creates 18% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 60 away

creates per match

Muttenz
2.26
Black Stars
1.77

allows per match

Muttenz
1.68
Black Stars
1.85

finishing

Muttenz+0.00on par
Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muttenz ↓

Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Muttenz or draw
67%
Muttenz or Black Stars
79%
Draw or Black Stars
54%

Winning margin

Muttenz wins by 2+
26%
Black Stars wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Muttenz 1+ goals
87%
Muttenz 2+ goals
61%
Muttenz 3+ goals
33%
Black Stars 1+ goals
82%
Black Stars 2+ goals
52%
Black Stars 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Muttenz (draw refunded)
58%
Black Stars (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muttenz at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.68 · 57 matches

Black Stars away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.85 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muttenz attack 2.26 + Black Stars defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.05

Black Stars attack 1.77 + Muttenz defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Muttenz scores more
46%
level
21%
Black Stars scores more
33%

Muttenz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Muttenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muttenz vs Black Stars

Muttenz beat Black Stars 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Margelacker in Muttenz.