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Black Stars vs Muttenz — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Black Stars
Black Stars
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Muttenz
Muttenz
8/4/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Sportplatz Buschweilerhof

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Black Stars49%
×Draw21%
Muttenz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Stars
2.08
Muttenz
1.61

Black Stars creates 29% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

creates per match

Black Stars
2.15
Muttenz
1.80

allows per match

Black Stars
1.43
Muttenz
2.00

finishing

Black Stars+0.00on par
Muttenz+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Stars ↓

Muttenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Black Stars or draw
70%
Black Stars or Muttenz
79%
Draw or Muttenz
51%

Winning margin

Black Stars wins by 2+
28%
Muttenz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Black Stars 1+ goals
87%
Black Stars 2+ goals
61%
Black Stars 3+ goals
34%
Muttenz 1+ goals
80%
Muttenz 2+ goals
48%
Muttenz 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Black Stars (draw refunded)
62%
Muttenz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Stars at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.43 · 60 matches

Muttenz away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Stars attack 2.15 + Muttenz defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Muttenz attack 1.80 + Black Stars defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Black Stars scores more
49%
level
21%
Muttenz scores more
30%

Black Stars at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Stars vs Muttenz

Black Stars beat Muttenz 3-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Buschweilerhof in Basel.