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Mutschelbach vs Göppinger SV — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Mutschelbach
Mutschelbach
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
5/18/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 33ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mutschelbach44%
×Draw22%
Göppinger SV34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutschelbach
1.96
Göppinger SV
1.71

Mutschelbach creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 76 away

creates per match

Mutschelbach
2.44
Göppinger SV
1.49

allows per match

Mutschelbach
1.94
Göppinger SV
1.47

finishing

Mutschelbach+0.00on par
Göppinger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutschelbach ↓

Göppinger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Mutschelbach or draw
66%
Mutschelbach or Göppinger SV
78%
Draw or Göppinger SV
56%

Winning margin

Mutschelbach wins by 2+
24%
Göppinger SV wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mutschelbach 1+ goals
86%
Mutschelbach 2+ goals
58%
Mutschelbach 3+ goals
31%
Göppinger SV 1+ goals
82%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
51%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Mutschelbach (draw refunded)
56%
Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutschelbach at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

Göppinger SV away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutschelbach attack 2.44 + Göppinger SV defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.96

Göppinger SV attack 1.49 + Mutschelbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mutschelbach scores more
44%
level
22%
Göppinger SV scores more
34%

Mutschelbach at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mutschelbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Mutschelbach 2–0 Göppinger SV

Mutschelbach beat Göppinger SV 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena in Karlsbad.