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Göppinger SV vs Mutschelbach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mutschelbach
Mutschelbach
3/11/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 22Stadion SV Göppingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Göppinger SV54%
×Draw21%
Mutschelbach26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göppinger SV
2.21
Mutschelbach
1.48

Göppinger SV creates 49% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 34 away

creates per match

Göppinger SV
2.05
Mutschelbach
1.68

allows per match

Göppinger SV
1.27
Mutschelbach
2.38

finishing

Göppinger SV+0.00on par
Mutschelbach+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göppinger SV ↓

Mutschelbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Göppinger SV or draw
74%
Göppinger SV or Mutschelbach
79%
Draw or Mutschelbach
46%

Winning margin

Göppinger SV wins by 2+
33%
Mutschelbach wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Göppinger SV 1+ goals
89%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
65%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
38%
Mutschelbach 1+ goals
77%
Mutschelbach 2+ goals
43%
Mutschelbach 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
68%
Mutschelbach (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göppinger SV at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Mutschelbach away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göppinger SV attack 2.05 + Mutschelbach defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.21

Mutschelbach attack 1.68 + Göppinger SV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Göppinger SV scores more
54%
level
21%
Mutschelbach scores more
26%

Göppinger SV at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Göppinger SV vs Mutschelbach

Göppinger SV and Mutschelbach drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SV Göppingen in Göppingen.