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Mutschelbach vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Mutschelbach
Mutschelbach
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
C. Batke 63', 19'
D. Tritschler 41'
9/17/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 9ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mutschelbach54%
×Draw20%
Freiburger FC26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutschelbach
2.25
Freiburger FC
1.53

Mutschelbach creates 47% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 42 away

creates per match

Mutschelbach
2.44
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

Mutschelbach
1.94
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

Mutschelbach+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutschelbach ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Mutschelbach or draw
74%
Mutschelbach or Freiburger FC
80%
Draw or Freiburger FC
46%

Winning margin

Mutschelbach wins by 2+
33%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mutschelbach 1+ goals
89%
Mutschelbach 2+ goals
65%
Mutschelbach 3+ goals
39%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
78%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
45%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mutschelbach (draw refunded)
67%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutschelbach at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutschelbach attack 2.44 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.25

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + Mutschelbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mutschelbach scores more
54%
level
20%
Freiburger FC scores more
26%

Mutschelbach at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mutschelbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
C. Batke
41'
D. Tritschler
63'
C. Batke

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mutschelbach vs Freiburger FC

Mutschelbach beat Freiburger FC 2-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 17, 2022.

Goals: C. Batke (19', 63'), D. Tritschler (41').

The match was played at ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena in Karlsbad.