Freiburger FC 2–3 Mutschelbach: Result & Stats

Freiburger FC

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Mutschelbach

N. Ivancic 85'

D. Tritschler 80'

C. Batke 32', 27'

D. Klemm 7'

4/8/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 26Dietenbach-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Freiburger FC40%

×Draw21%

Mutschelbach39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburger FCExpected goals in this matchMutschelbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.94

Freiburger FC

1.95

Mutschelbach

1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 34 away

1.52

creates per match

1.68

2.21

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Freiburger FC

1.52

Mutschelbach

1.68

allows per match

Freiburger FC

2.21

Mutschelbach

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Mutschelbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburger FC ↓

Mutschelbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Freiburger FC or draw

61%

Freiburger FC or Mutschelbach

79%

Draw or Mutschelbach

60%

Winning margin

Freiburger FC wins by 2+

21%

Mutschelbach wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Freiburger FC 1+ goals

86%

Freiburger FC 2+ goals

58%

Freiburger FC 3+ goals

31%

Mutschelbach 1+ goals

86%

Mutschelbach 2+ goals

58%

Mutschelbach 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)

50%

Mutschelbach (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburger FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

Mutschelbach away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburger FC attack 1.52 + Mutschelbach defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.95

Mutschelbach attack 1.68 + Freiburger FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Freiburger FC scores more

40%

level

21%

Mutschelbach scores more

39%

Freiburger FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Freiburger FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

D. Klemm

27'

C. Batke

32'

C. Batke

80'

D. Tritschler

85'

N. Ivancic

90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff