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Mutschelbach vs Denzlingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Mutschelbach
Mutschelbach
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Denzlingen
Denzlingen
C. Batke 13', 4'
M. Eggert 50'
N. Garcia 22' (pen)
8/30/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 5ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mutschelbach57%
×Draw19%
Denzlingen24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutschelbach
2.44
Denzlingen
1.56

Mutschelbach creates 56% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Mutschelbach
2.44
Denzlingen
1.18

allows per match

Mutschelbach
1.94
Denzlingen
2.44

finishing

Mutschelbach+0.00on par
Denzlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutschelbach ↓

Denzlingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Mutschelbach or draw
76%
Mutschelbach or Denzlingen
81%
Draw or Denzlingen
43%

Winning margin

Mutschelbach wins by 2+
36%
Denzlingen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mutschelbach 1+ goals
91%
Mutschelbach 2+ goals
70%
Mutschelbach 3+ goals
43%
Denzlingen 1+ goals
79%
Denzlingen 2+ goals
46%
Denzlingen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Mutschelbach (draw refunded)
70%
Denzlingen (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutschelbach at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

Denzlingen away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutschelbach attack 2.44 + Denzlingen defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.44

Denzlingen attack 1.18 + Mutschelbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mutschelbach scores more
57%
level
19%
Denzlingen scores more
24%

Mutschelbach at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mutschelbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
C. Batke
13'
C. Batke
22'
N. GarciaPenalty
50'
M. Eggert

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mutschelbach vs Denzlingen

Mutschelbach and Denzlingen drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 30, 2023.

Goals: C. Batke (4', 13'), N. Garcia (22' pen), M. Eggert (50').

The match was played at ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena in Karlsbad.