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Denzlingen vs Mutschelbach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Denzlingen
Denzlingen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mutschelbach
Mutschelbach
3/9/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 22Einbollenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Denzlingen37%
×Draw22%
Mutschelbach41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denzlingen
1.79
Mutschelbach
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Denzlingen
1.21
Mutschelbach
1.68

allows per match

Denzlingen
2.09
Mutschelbach
2.38

finishing

Denzlingen+0.00on par
Mutschelbach+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denzlingen ↓

Mutschelbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Denzlingen or draw
59%
Denzlingen or Mutschelbach
78%
Draw or Mutschelbach
63%

Winning margin

Denzlingen wins by 2+
19%
Mutschelbach wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Denzlingen 1+ goals
83%
Denzlingen 2+ goals
53%
Denzlingen 3+ goals
26%
Mutschelbach 1+ goals
85%
Mutschelbach 2+ goals
56%
Mutschelbach 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Denzlingen (draw refunded)
48%
Mutschelbach (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denzlingen at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.09 · 34 matches

Mutschelbach away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denzlingen attack 1.21 + Mutschelbach defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.79

Mutschelbach attack 1.68 + Denzlingen defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Denzlingen scores more
37%
level
22%
Mutschelbach scores more
41%

Mutschelbach at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mutschelbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Denzlingen vs Mutschelbach

Denzlingen beat Mutschelbach 2-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Einbollenstadion in Denzlingen.