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Mutilvera vs Ejea — League #876 2026

Mutilvera
Mutilvera
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Ejea
Ejea
I. Gonzalez 90'
Giovanni 77', 71'
D. Alvarez 65'
1/31/2026League #876League #876 · Group 2 - 21Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Mutilvera40%
×Draw25%
Ejea34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutilvera
1.46
Ejea
1.32

Mutilvera creates 11% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Mutilvera
1.14
Ejea
0.78

allows per match

Mutilvera
1.86
Ejea
1.78

finishing

Mutilvera+0.00on par
Ejea+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutilvera ↓

Ejea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mutilvera or draw
66%
Mutilvera or Ejea
75%
Draw or Ejea
60%

Winning margin

Mutilvera wins by 2+
19%
Ejea wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mutilvera 1+ goals
77%
Mutilvera 2+ goals
43%
Mutilvera 3+ goals
18%
Ejea 1+ goals
73%
Ejea 2+ goals
38%
Ejea 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mutilvera (draw refunded)
54%
Ejea (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutilvera at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

Ejea away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutilvera attack 1.14 + Ejea defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ejea attack 0.78 + Mutilvera defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mutilvera scores more
40%
level
25%
Ejea scores more
34%

Mutilvera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mutilvera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
D. Alvarez
71'
Giovanni
77'
Giovanni
90'
I. Gonzalez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #876: Mutilvera 1–3 Ejea

Ejea beat Mutilvera 3-1 in League #876 on January 31, 2026.

Goals: D. Alvarez (65'), Giovanni (71', 77'), I. Gonzalez (90').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren in Mutilva Baja.