Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ejea vs Mutilvera — League #876 2026

Ejea
Ejea
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Mutilvera
Mutilvera
O. Jimenez 45', 30'
S. Banzo 34'
I. Telletxea 10'
9/6/2025League #876League #876 · Group 2 - 1Estadio de Luchán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ejea48%
×Draw27%
Mutilvera25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ejea
1.42
Mutilvera
0.96

Ejea creates 48% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ejea
1.22
Mutilvera
0.92

allows per match

Ejea
1.00
Mutilvera
1.62

finishing

Ejea+0.00on par
Mutilvera+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ejea ↓

Mutilvera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ejea or draw
75%
Ejea or Mutilvera
73%
Draw or Mutilvera
52%

Winning margin

Ejea wins by 2+
23%
Mutilvera wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ejea 1+ goals
76%
Ejea 2+ goals
41%
Ejea 3+ goals
17%
Mutilvera 1+ goals
62%
Mutilvera 2+ goals
25%
Mutilvera 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ejea (draw refunded)
65%
Mutilvera (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ejea at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Mutilvera away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ejea attack 1.22 + Mutilvera defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mutilvera attack 0.92 + Ejea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ejea scores more
48%
level
27%
Mutilvera scores more
25%

Ejea at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ejea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
I. Telletxea
30'
O. Jimenez
34'
S. Banzo
45'
O. Jimenez
Ejea
Mutilvera
Iván Martínez
Manager: Iván Martínez
Álvaro Garrido
Manager: Álvaro Garrido

Match Recap: Ejea vs Mutilvera

Ejea and Mutilvera drew 2-2 in League #876 on September 6, 2025.

Goals: I. Telletxea (10'), O. Jimenez (30', 45'), S. Banzo (34').

The match was played at Estadio de Luchán in Ejea de los Caballeros.