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Mutilvera vs Ebro — League #876 2026

Mutilvera
Mutilvera
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ebro
Ebro
Unknown 2'
M. Prat 76'
4/3/2026League #876League #876 · Group 2 - 30Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mutilvera50%
×Draw25%
Ebro26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutilvera
1.63
Ebro
1.10

Mutilvera creates 48% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Mutilvera
1.25
Ebro
0.33

allows per match

Mutilvera
1.88
Ebro
2.00

finishing

Mutilvera+0.00on par
Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutilvera ↓

Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mutilvera or draw
74%
Mutilvera or Ebro
75%
Draw or Ebro
50%

Winning margin

Mutilvera wins by 2+
26%
Ebro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mutilvera 1+ goals
80%
Mutilvera 2+ goals
48%
Mutilvera 3+ goals
22%
Ebro 1+ goals
67%
Ebro 2+ goals
30%
Ebro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mutilvera (draw refunded)
66%
Ebro (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutilvera at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Ebro away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutilvera attack 1.25 + Ebro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ebro attack 0.33 + Mutilvera defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mutilvera scores more
50%
level
25%
Ebro scores more
26%

Mutilvera at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mutilvera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
76'
M. Prat

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #876: Mutilvera 1–1 Ebro

Mutilvera and Ebro drew 1-1 in League #876 on April 3, 2026.

Goals: ? (2'), M. Prat (76').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren in Mutilva Baja.