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Ebro vs Mutilvera — League #876 2026

Ebro
Ebro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mutilvera
Mutilvera
K. Soeiro 17'
H. Teres 83'
10/18/2025League #876League #876 · Group 2 - 7Estadio Almozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ebro56%
×Draw27%
Mutilvera16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebro
1.41
Mutilvera
0.62

Ebro creates 127% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ebro
0.67
Mutilvera
0.57

allows per match

Ebro
0.67
Mutilvera
2.14

finishing

Ebro+0.00on par
Mutilvera+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebro ↓

Mutilvera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ebro or draw
84%
Ebro or Mutilvera
73%
Draw or Mutilvera
44%

Winning margin

Ebro wins by 2+
28%
Mutilvera wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ebro 1+ goals
76%
Ebro 2+ goals
41%
Ebro 3+ goals
17%
Mutilvera 1+ goals
46%
Mutilvera 2+ goals
13%
Mutilvera 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ebro (draw refunded)
77%
Mutilvera (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebro at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Mutilvera away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebro attack 0.67 + Mutilvera defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.41

Mutilvera attack 0.57 + Ebro defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ebro scores more
56%
level
27%
Mutilvera scores more
16%

Ebro at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
K. Soeiro
40'
I. Telletxea
55'
Nacho Uche
55'
Nacho Uche
83'
H. Teres
88'
I. Martinez
Ebro
Mutilvera
Javier Genovés
Manager: Javier Genovés
Álvaro Garrido
Manager: Álvaro Garrido

Match Recap: Ebro vs Mutilvera

Ebro and Mutilvera drew 1-1 in League #876 on October 18, 2025.

Goals: K. Soeiro (17'), H. Teres (83').

The match was played at Estadio Almozara in Zaragoza.