Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Manta FC: Result & Stats

Mushuc Runa SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Manta FC

J. Verges 26'

D. Valencia 43' (pen)

10/25/2025

Liga Pro · Relegation Group - 2Estadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC54%

×Draw25%

Manta FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushuc Runa SCExpected goals in this matchManta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.88

Mushuc Runa SC

1.58

Manta FC

0.88

Mushuc Runa SC creates 80% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.16

creates per match

0.89

0.87

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.16

Manta FC

0.89

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC

0.87

Manta FC

2.01

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC-0.45scores less

Manta FC-0.22scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Manta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw

79%

Mushuc Runa SC or Manta FC

75%

Draw or Manta FC

46%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

28%

Manta FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

79%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

47%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

21%

Manta FC 1+ goals

59%

Manta FC 2+ goals

22%

Manta FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

72%

Manta FC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.87 · 7 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.01 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.16 + Manta FC defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.58

Manta FC attack 0.89 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

54%

level

25%

Manta FC scores more

21%

Mushuc Runa SC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55

J. Verges

Mushuc Runa SC · M

7.5

Match Events

-5'

-5'

-5'

9'

20'

26'

29'

33'

33'

41'

Jostin AlmanPenalty confirmed

43'

D. ValenciaPenalty

51'

Carlos Orejuela

56'

R. Burbano← J. Verges

62'

Cristian Penilla

62'

Brian Ramirez

72'

Felix Zambrano

74'

B. Delgado← C. Orejuela

76'

A. Zambrano← E. Davila

76'

L. B. Torres Nazareno← F. Ospitaleche

84'

F. Almeida← M. Valencia

90+8'

Josué Chala

90+1'

R. Ortiz← C. Aleman

90+1'

J. Penarrieta← M. Jaramillo

90+1'

J. Chala← D. Valencia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MushucManta

Overview

75%Possession25%

21Total Shots7

2.30Expected Goals (xG)1.10

5Corners2

14Fouls16

Shots

21Total Shots7

6On Target2

9Off Target4

6Blocked1

15Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

75%Possession25%

476Total Passes163

403Accurate Passes92

85%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

4Yellow Cards8

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3