Manta FC 3–0 Mushuc Runa SC: Result & Stats

Manta FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mushuc Runa SC

D. Quintero 59' (OG)

C. Aleman 28'

D. Valencia 21'

11/8/2025

Liga Pro · Relegation Group - 4Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Manta FC37%

×Draw29%

Mushuc Runa SC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manta FCExpected goals in this matchMushuc Runa SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.10

Manta FC

1.17

Mushuc Runa SC

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.05

creates per match

0.85

1.35

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Manta FC

1.05

Mushuc Runa SC

0.85

allows per match

Manta FC

1.35

Mushuc Runa SC

1.28

-0.05on par

finishing

+1.15scores more than expected

finishing

Manta FC-0.05on par

Mushuc Runa SC+1.15scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw

66%

Manta FC or Mushuc Runa SC

71%

Draw or Mushuc Runa SC

63%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+

16%

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals

69%

Manta FC 2+ goals

33%

Manta FC 3+ goals

11%

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

67%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

30%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)

52%

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 6 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.05 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.85 + Manta FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Manta FC scores more

37%

level

29%

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

34%

Manta FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Aleman

Manta FC · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

Dagner Quintero

20'

Jhonnier Chalá

21'

D. Valencia

25'

J. Verges← K. Peralta

25'

R. Burbano← A. Gracia

28'

C. Aleman↳ J. Alman

33'

Maikel Valencia

59'

D. QuinteroOwn goal

69'

J. Zambrano← D. Valencia

72'

A. Zambrano← E. Davila

73'

S. Castro← W. J. Chala Rosales

77'

F. Almeida← F. Ospitaleche

77'

L. B. Torres Nazareno← M. Valencia

81'

Joaquín Vergés

83'

D. Cabezas← B. Ramirez

83'

J. Mina← C. Aleman

83'

J. Cusme← G. Mina

90+3'

Arnaldo Zambrano

90+2'

Arnaldo ZambranoCard upgrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantaMushuc

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots8

1Corners6

16Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots8

4On Target3

5Off Target3

1Blocked2

8Inside Box4

2Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

274Total Passes355

191Accurate Passes271

70%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Manta FC vs Mushuc Runa SC

Manta FC beat Mushuc Runa SC 3-0 in Liga Pro on November 8, 2025.

Goals: D. Valencia (21'), C. Aleman (28'), D. Quintero (59' o.g.).

Mushuc Runa SC controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.

Manta FC vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Manta FC vs Mushuc Runa SC