Mushuc Runa SC 4–3 Macara: Result & Stats

Mushuc Runa SC

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Macara

C. Penilla 81'

C. Orejuela 78'

B. Miranda 52'

E. Caicedo 37'

J. Marrufo 90'

F. Paz 38'

L. Alvarez 17'

5/4/2025

Liga Pro · Round 11Estadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC45%

×Draw27%

Macara29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushuc Runa SCExpected goals in this matchMacara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.08

Mushuc Runa SC

1.42

Macara

1.08

Mushuc Runa SC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 74 away

1.44

creates per match

1.03

1.13

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.44

Macara

1.03

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.13

Macara

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Macara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw

71%

Mushuc Runa SC or Macara

73%

Draw or Macara

55%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

22%

Macara wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

76%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

41%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

17%

Macara 1+ goals

66%

Macara 2+ goals

29%

Macara 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

61%

Macara (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Macara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.44 + Macara defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Macara attack 1.03 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

45%

level

27%

Macara scores more

29%

Mushuc Runa SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

E. Caicedo

Mushuc Runa SC · F

8.5

Match Events

17'

L. Alvarez↳ J. Cazares

20'

F. PazGoal Disallowed

37'

E. Caicedo

38'

F. Paz

45+1'

J. Cazares

46'

J. L. Mancilla Quinones← K. Peralta

46'

C. Orejuela← G. Mina

52'

B. Miranda↳ E. Caicedo

55'

R. Simisterra← E. Caicedo

65'

D. Lopez← A. Chere

73'

N. Arena

78'

C. Orejuela↳ R. Simisterra

80'

E. Davila← M. Alonso

81'

C. Penilla↳ B. Miranda

84'

M. Tello← R. Zambrano

84'

V. Avila← M. Viera

90+3'

B. Delgado← B. Miranda

90'

S. Zamora← L. Alvarez

90'

J. Marrufo↳ N. Arena

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MushucMacara

Overview

54%Possession46%

22Total Shots16

9Corners3

4Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots16

12On Target7

6Off Target6

4Blocked3

12Inside Box6

10Outside Box10

Passing

54%Possession46%

343Total Passes316

240Accurate Passes219

70%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

4Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2