Mushuc Runa SC 2–1 Macara: Result & Stats

Mushuc Runa SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Macara

J. Vergés 90+3'

M. Acuña 90+1'

D. López 30' (pen)

11/3/2024

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 12Estadio Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Mushuc Runa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC41%

×Draw26%

Macara32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushuc Runa SCExpected goals in this matchMacara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.18

Mushuc Runa SC

1.38

Macara

1.18

Mushuc Runa SC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 117 away

1.43

creates per match

1.12

1.23

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.43

Macara

1.12

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.23

Macara

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Macara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw

68%

Mushuc Runa SC or Macara

74%

Draw or Macara

59%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

19%

Macara wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

75%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

40%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

16%

Macara 1+ goals

69%

Macara 2+ goals

33%

Macara 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

56%

Macara (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 118 matches

Macara away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.43 + Macara defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Macara attack 1.12 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

41%

level

26%

Macara scores more

32%

Mushuc Runa SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Vergés

Mushuc Runa SC · M

7.9

Match Events

27'

Dennis Quintero

27'

Janpol MoralesPenalty confirmed

30'

D. LópezPenalty

45+1'

Rody Zambrano

46'

J. Caicedo← E. Fernández

46'

J. Vergés← M. Montaño

61'

Jeison Mina

69'

M. Alonso← A. Zambrano

74'

V. Ávila← J. Valdez

81'

F. Obando← J. Mina

83'

J. Jiménez← D. López

88'

D. Segura← J. Estacio

90+4'

J. Yépez← R. Zambrano

90+1'

M. Acuña↳ J. Vergés

90+3'

J. Vergés↳ M. Alonso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MushucMacara

Overview

53%Possession47%

21Total Shots11

5Corners5

17Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots11

4On Target5

14Off Target4

3Blocked2

10Inside Box5

11Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

275Total Passes266

196Accurate Passes159

71%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides5