Mushuc Runa SC 0–0 Macara: Result & Stats

Mushuc Runa SC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Macara

4/21/2022

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 9Estadio Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Mushuc Runa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC42%

×Draw29%

Macara30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushuc Runa SCExpected goals in this matchMacara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.99

Mushuc Runa SC

1.23

Macara

0.99

Mushuc Runa SC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.16

creates per match

1.10

0.87

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.16

Macara

1.10

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC

0.87

Macara

1.30

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC-0.45scores less

Macara+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Macara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw

70%

Mushuc Runa SC or Macara

71%

Draw or Macara

58%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

18%

Macara wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

71%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

35%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

13%

Macara 1+ goals

63%

Macara 2+ goals

26%

Macara 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

58%

Macara (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.87 · 7 matches

Macara away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.16 + Macara defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Macara attack 1.10 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

42%

level

29%

Macara scores more

30%

Mushuc Runa SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

32'

44'

49'

58'

J. Paredes← S. Giordana

58'

M. Mosquera← J. Estacio

59'

E. Velasco← C. Feraud

62'

Marco Mosquera

62'

T. Bolzicco← J. Valencia

66'

B. Nievas← J. Caicedo

80'

Fernando Mora

83'

W. Ayoví← J. Uchuari

83'

R. Champang← F. Mina

83'

D. Lucero← I. Ortigoza

88'

Tomas Bolzicco

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MushucMacara

Overview

48%Possession52%

2Total Shots7

1Corners5

16Fouls11

Shots

2Total Shots7

0On Target3

2Off Target4

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2