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Mushuc Runa SC vs LDU Loja — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
LDU Loja
LDU Loja
10/20/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 38Estadio Bellavista de Ambato (Ambato)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC63%
×Draw24%
LDU Loja13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushuc Runa SC
1.67
LDU Loja
0.62

Mushuc Runa SC creates 169% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 40 away

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.64
LDU Loja
0.60

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC
0.64
LDU Loja
1.70

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par
LDU Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

LDU Loja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw
87%
Mushuc Runa SC or LDU Loja
76%
Draw or LDU Loja
37%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
35%
LDU Loja wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
81%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
50%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
23%
LDU Loja 1+ goals
46%
LDU Loja 2+ goals
13%
LDU Loja 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
82%
LDU Loja (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

LDU Loja away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.64 + LDU Loja defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67

LDU Loja attack 0.60 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more
63%
level
24%
LDU Loja scores more
13%

Mushuc Runa SC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mushuc Runa SC vs LDU Loja

Mushuc Runa SC and LDU Loja drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato (Ambato).