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LDU Loja vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

LDU Loja
LDU Loja
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
9/1/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 29Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

LDU Loja33%
×Draw29%
Mushuc Runa SC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Loja
1.09
Mushuc Runa SC
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 22 away

creates per match

LDU Loja
1.00
Mushuc Runa SC
1.36

allows per match

LDU Loja
1.00
Mushuc Runa SC
1.18

finishing

LDU Loja+0.00on par
Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Loja ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

LDU Loja or draw
62%
LDU Loja or Mushuc Runa SC
71%
Draw or Mushuc Runa SC
67%

Winning margin

LDU Loja wins by 2+
13%
Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

LDU Loja 1+ goals
66%
LDU Loja 2+ goals
30%
LDU Loja 3+ goals
10%
Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
69%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
33%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

LDU Loja (draw refunded)
47%
Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Loja at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Loja attack 1.00 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.36 + LDU Loja defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

LDU Loja scores more
33%
level
29%
Mushuc Runa SC scores more
38%

Mushuc Runa SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: LDU Loja 0–2 Mushuc Runa SC

Mushuc Runa SC beat LDU Loja 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja).