Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Mushuc Runa SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

LDU de Quito

B. Miranda 90'

4/14/2025

Liga Pro · Round 8Estadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC37%

×Draw26%

LDU de Quito37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushuc Runa SCExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.30

Mushuc Runa SC

1.29

LDU de Quito

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 136 away

1.43

creates per match

1.37

1.23

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.43

LDU de Quito

1.37

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.23

LDU de Quito

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw

63%

Mushuc Runa SC or LDU de Quito

74%

Draw or LDU de Quito

63%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

16%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

72%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

37%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

14%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

73%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

37%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

50%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 118 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.43 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

37%

level

26%

LDU de Quito scores more

37%

Mushuc Runa SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

E. Davila

Mushuc Runa SC · M

7.3

Match Events

46'

E. Caicedo← A. Zambrano

46'

L. Alzugaray← B. J. Ramirez Leon

54'

B. Miranda← R. Simisterra

61'

L. Pastran← J. Quintero

61'

D. I. de la Cruz← F. Cornejo

71'

K. Peralta← M. Alonso

75'

A. Alvarado← M. Estrada

82'

Lautaro Pastrán

83'

A. Gracia← C. Penilla

84'

85'

88'

90+4'

90'

B. Miranda↳ E. Caicedo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MushucLDU

Overview

34%Possession66%

14Total Shots11

7Corners5

11Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots11

4On Target1

6Off Target8

4Blocked2

5Inside Box9

9Outside Box2

Passing

34%Possession66%

234Total Passes482

139Accurate Passes389

59%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1